Lake Michigan 2016: Seven Years
These are the numbers, averaged on monthly scale:
August 2010: 578.21 feet [some Great Lakes datum] (0.6 below avg)
June 2011: 578.12 (0.7 below avg)
June 2012: 577.66 (1.1 below avg)
June 2013: 577.66 (1.1 below avg)
June 2014: 578.67 (pretty much right on avg)
June 2015: 579.69 (approx foot higher than average)
June 2016: ~580.2 (approx foot and half higher than avg; monthly data not yet complete)
578.8 is the long-term average (1918 to present). The highest June average was 581.79 (1986). The lowest June average was 576.64 (1964). So to be clear these data indicate, provided I am reading everything correctly, a water level range of 5+ feet since 1918. That's elevation; not any measure on shore or "inundation distance horizontal." The 20x20 year was 2013 and it appears we were fishing a water level that was only one foot above the lowest June on record; and a foot below the long-term average. The 2011 deal was silly good too, and that was pretty low water.
2010: sacrificial learning year in which we stood no chance whatsoever; good note there that we never got any explicit instruction regarding places to go, times to fish, etc. We literally, three guys, walked around in fishless water for four days, doing our time, learning our lesson. Thinking about 2011.
2011: bombshell year with great water levels; we reported 75-80 total carp to hand and a lot of lost flies. We lit it up pretty well but in retrospect, if we had a redo, we'd probably have caught many more fish and a lot bigger fish (we topped out at 23 lbs).
2012: we took a beat down, and noted: Why the carp beat us: (1) water level: it was down. So good water last year (two places in particular) was reduced to unsecured holding areas, i.e. I don’t think the fish felt safe on those flats so they simply weren’t there. We had to regauge some things. (2) Timing was off just a bit. Most of the carp we found were neutral to negative. Big groups of cycling/circling carp were present. But getting them to eat… you know how it goes. It was possible: we knicked a couple of them for sure. But ratio of work to fish to hand was too high. (3) Cloud cover. It was an issue. We caught eleven carp total, three guys in four days. This trip was saved by 100+ big smallmouth bass caught in knee deep dead clear water striking dark flies without mercy and catapulting from the water.
Basically we believe that we were not fishing correctly in every situation here too, and should have caught more carp than we got to hand.
2013: the afore-linked, record-setting year in various respects. Approx 135 carp to hand with these bigs:
- Day 1: 20, 20
- Day 2: 26, 25, 21, 21, 28, 24, 24, 23, 21
- Day 3: 25, 23, 21, 31, 22
- Day 4: 27, 26, 23, 21
2014:this trip (apparently the average water level) I recall was revving up really well, and then we got chopped off by weather, as noted: First 40% of the trip we did well, I think 44 carp to hand. Cool air, gray, mist, rain came. Specific heat of the bays such that they did not warm well and thus there came no reason for the fish to ascend them. Day three we sought out wandering black shapes and we got some (only four total). By day four they were gone to us. No longer known in the shallows. We resorted to bass fishing, which was successful. Day five we assembled a triage approach and we made it work. Some new water, new setting.
2015: the first "high water" year (on our relative scale) that made for a tough go: As noted we ended the log with thirty carp to hand. I can't remember the day by day totals, but because there were so few caught, I do remember this was my sequence: 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2. For a total of thirteen carp (but I logged that extra scouting day). Not a big number. But that includes 22 and 24 lb fish. I know JM got seven in one day. We all caught some fish; got some great takes. Overall we got five 20-24 lb carp to hand.
And so this was our feeling coming into 2016. All that recently-inundated land area to consider; the greater volumes of water in the bays, requiring more heat to keep maintain whatever temperature is key; we needed to adapt; adapt or die maybe. That segue ways to how we basically saved our trip this year: we spent time studying, and we gave up fishing time at known waters in attempts to understand and study new waters (...for in this world more things exist without our knowledge than with it... - J. Holden).
Study episode #1: exchanging Google Earth images of two key prospective carping waters; zooming in, Googling for folks' snapshots; looking at access points. We found nothing written on either location; nor did we speak with anyone on the matter of these possibilities.
Study episode #2: I scheduled my arrival one day early, not so I could "pre-fish" but so I could drive all over hell looking at water. I focused on one of the two waters we had discussed, hoping I might confirm back-up status; that it would be a viable carping destination should the fickle Michigami deal us a cold front or a long row of iron gray clouds or a wind that would push cold water into known havens. I concede that I did stop at one baitshop and proceeded under the guise of one looking to buy aquaseal; I heard from one spinfisherman that "there were a lot of carp thrashing around in area XX last week." As I left the store the proprietor saluted with "we've got plenty of new spearheads if you break one" but I'm immune to even chuckling at such sentiments anymore. She was dead serious but so it seems was I and thus I continued. High hopes were apparent; water looked good via imagery study; carp were around, per locals. I looked the place over and saw nary a carp. Come and go they do. But the main survey I executed was not for absence/presence of carp; rather, the access, fishability, and general "fishiness" of this place. All ranked pretty low. Cross it off the list as a place we probably won't visit again. I looked at some more water nearby; no hits; wonder why Christmas missed us and I got the hell out of there.
Study episode #3 is detailed below in the text for days three and four.
I noted that I went a day early, but that day was split over two calendar days. Meaning after the cold scout was done, I checked on the condition of some of our "known backup water." That interaction resulted in the first two fish of the trip:
Day Zero
Day One
Key decisions must be made. Often it takes retrospect to fully understand the gravity of some decisions (gravity used here in the context of our fishing endeavors; not to say that such decisions are especially important on grander scales). We studied the weather; we knew it was not favorable in terms of fishing the shallow bays; the water we love. Cool front, full cloud cover; some rain. So we opted for a backup location to start things off. Pretty good idea because we would have been stoned on our normal water.
Instead of getting beat down JM landed two carp up to 19 lbs. |
JM found that sinking the fly in the deep plunge was a good means of hooking catfish. |
We each got one 5 lber to hand; nice whiskers. |
Day Two
Day Three
This was the day we hoped would be our transition into goodness. Fishing the bays; the flats. But in the back of our minds was the fear of the inertia: water doesn't warm instantly; nor do fish move immediately even after the conditions do change. Our great fear was that we'd have our best sunlight day (which we did) and have no targets.
At this point then we examined our options. Figuring in fact tomorrow would be the best day; this being the transition day. Should we go explore. Uncharted, unwritten water; the water that JM identified and we discussed; it constitutes study episode #3. We opted to check it out; to leave our known quantities.
Day Four
Last day, best day. We covered a lot of water. We fished various settings:
(1) Spawning fish and fish sleeping up in the spawning areas. These fish can be had via reaction bites and Flycarpin/JM have a nicely tuned method that increases the eat percentages. I employed it beyond the typical "shock dap" that we've used in the past and it went 3/3 on first three attempts. This is the shallow theater, holding steady, detailed presentation work. JM used it very successfully to locate and pry all the big fish from the shallows. There amongst the lesser 15-19 lbers.
(2) The transition from the shallows out toward the rocks; it was marked by vegetation and little pockets of fine deposition; occasional bigger deeper "alleys" that held fish. Good eaters too and we even found some half-heartedly tailing (all of which were caught on first or second presentation). Getting the fly into the lanes in the maze of veg was an engaging challenge. Figure where that carp is headed, look to find the intersect and get the fly there before the fish; don't snag anything; move it as needed when the time is right. The eat is the payoff.
(3) The rocks on the outer depths of our accessible range showed many circulating/traveling fish that wouldn't eat, but also showed the meanest carp and probably the most dramatic takes. Big fish turning circles, charging. Sometimes strip setting and just coming tight as carp moved on the fly. Has to be supreme fishing theater for anyone, anyone who appreciates quality angling. All this with black leeches, so the visual is optimized 100%. Seeing everything that is happening.
Our estimates for the day were 30+ and 40+ with JM getting ahead by way of a couple flurries in the shallows in which he strung together a lot of fish in short time. Seventy carp and in my estimation it's an absolute minimum. I stopped counting my own fish at 22 and that was around 11 AM. I back that up by looking at the rate of catch: we fished probably nine hours minimum and there is no way in hell either guy went one hour without catching at least four fish. The math flows from that point. JM logged eight 20+ fish, breaking his old record of seven in one day. Once he got the feeling he could do it, I figured it was over because he was up shallow just hunting down the big sows and singling them out with his lariat like an old vaquero there leaving the younglings behind. I couldn't get away from the drama of the rocks and those silly takes. As such I logged only two fish 20+; I probably should have focused in on the bigs but I liked any carp that would charge a black leech in dead clear water. Notably "talking down" about unlimited fish 15-19 lbs as they compare to 20+ lbers. We scaled many fish that were a shade under - the18-19 lbers - released with little thought or any marker of intersecting them in time or space.
That's about the text for it; pictures below.
Outer rim water. |
The transition. |
What was once shrubland now inundated. |
Think this was the record-setting eighth 20+ fish for JM. |
The word ideal comes to mind. |
25 lber. |
Think was 24. |
49 lb double. |
This was a particularly angry carp that moved great distance and with great authority to eat a black leech. I think only 14 lbs but I liked the scale pattern. |
Another nameless sow. |
One of many doubles, with camera lashed to a non-aquatic woody plant and fishable flats rolling to all sides. Deep color of Michigami in the absolute background. |
Day Five: Walkout Day
To sum up numbers:
Carp
Day zero: 2
Day one: 2
Day two: 2
Day three: 11
Day four: ~70
Half day five: 14
Three catfish, many drum, fair number of bass without targeting them.
The final statement is only to laud the common carp. Big fish in dead clear water in various environs and moods. Sight fishing with black leech patterns 2-4 inches varying (to be clear sometimes it can be tough using smaller flies or colors that don't contrast well in the water; the black leech was just ridiculous; could be seen in almost any light from any distance; couldn't get over it). Everything playing out in the form of a hunt: spot the fish, stalk it, present without spooking, watch the eat, set the hook. No encumbrance (i.e. no boat, trailer). Big fish. Average size such that dozens of fish in the teens are released without comment. Not clear to me what else one would want in terms of a freshwater fishery.
Heck of an adventure. Makes everything before and after easier. Thanks JM for keeping at it; we're building a good book here; more to come. Won't be long and kids will be in waders alongside.